CHRISTIAN HARDER ON VARIANCE AND THE GPI

The GPI’s lack of a more explosive recency bias could be argued as a weakness. After all, it’s measuring success more than skill, and to some degree, we’re all going to want to know who the most successful player is RIGHT NOW.

Christian Harder is a guy whose results might be slighted in this way by the GPI. Harder went on a ballistic run in late 2011 that saw him score a six-figure WSOP final table score, then a heads-up event win at the Borgata, followed by a $248,962 runner-up finish at the World Poker Finals. It was the kind of performance that can elevate a player who is already on the map, but Harder is ranked just 104th in this week’s GPI update. Harder isn’t one for false advertising, though. He’ll be the first one to tell you that he was on a heater.

“It’s hard to say about recency,” Harder said when asked if the GPI should bent more towards the present. “There’s arguments for both, but if you do recency, its about who’s the hottest, not the best. There’s so much variance in poker, you want it to be about consistency. It’s really hard to argue with the top 15 or 20…there’s no true new names, which is a sign of a consistent system. If you look at Card Player or Bluff’s player of the year, you haven’t heard of half the guys in the top ten.”

Harder, an online phenom whose live side-gig has netted him over $2.3 million in tournament winnings, knows his rating is affected in part by an aversion to flying that keeps him more interested in online play. GPI isn’t so much something he’ll look at relentlessly, but a fun way to keep things interesting with friends.

“Its something I’ve looked at,” he said. “I’m not obsessive over it, but it’s interesting to see how I’m doing, how I rank with respect to other players. I like looking at my friends…Tony Gregg and Greg Merson…they’re in the 100s. I’m in the 70’s”

As he said that, he was clicking on last week’s update…

“…wait, what, I dropped 28 spots??” Harder laughed. “I was in the 20s at one point! I was in USA Today and stuff my mom took my picture!”

While it obviously wasn’t end of the world stuff, the realization he’d dropped got the 24-year old Annapolis pro talking about a 2012 in which he’s scored just $81,377 in live tournament winnings. Harder scored just three small cashes at WSOP despite entering 24 events, but he doesn’t see that as a function of poor play. For him, it’s yet another function of variance.

“In 2012, I haven’t really done anything and I don’t think I’m playing any worse,” Harder explained. “Maybe I’m just saying that to myself to make myself feel better, but I really believe it. If you look at Dan Smith’s career arc, he’s been a good player since I’ve known him, starting in 2007, but through 2011 he didn’t do much. He’s a really good tournament player who did nothing for three years, basically. Now, in the past 7 months, he’s on one of the best tears ever. I don’t think he got a lot better. He’ll even tell you he didn’t. It’s just variance and a lot of people don’t really understand that. Jason Mercier has had a terrible 2012 after great years before this. He’ll tell you the same thing.“

Whether you buy into Harder’s philosophy or not, it’s tough to argue with his results. Despite limited live play, he’s managed five six-digit cashes in as many years. That could mean he’s gotten lucky to run deep in the right spots. It could also mean that he’s just really, really good.