STRAT SESH: FPM Speculation

What makes FPM – Fantasy Poker Manager – different than your average, run-of-the-mill fantasy sports league is the “stock market” side of the game where players become assets and buying and selling them from tournament to tournament becomes strategic.  Most FPM users – myself included – struggle with this part of the game and yet, it can be a critical component of the game and making the wrong moves at the wrong time may be ok in the short term, it may very well come back and haunt you later down the line.

Because of a few costly mistakes and back-to-back-to-back tournaments (which meant several changes to my lineup), I was forced to convert loyalty points into player credits in order to afford my team at the WPT Bay 101 Shooting Star.  This allowed me to have a little more money available to me at EPT London.  But even though he didn’t make it to Day 2 play, did I make a mistake in dropping Paul Volpe (GPI#79) since I grabbed him for so cheap initially?

spec·u·la·tion  [spek-yuh-ley-shuhn]

Noun | engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, especially trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price.

FPM SPECULATION – VOLPE VAULTS
I didn’t grab Paul Volpe when Mohsin Charania told me I should, right before Day 2 play at the WPT L.A. Poker Classic.  But, I was “smart” enough to add Volpe at a ridiculously low Market Price of 90,160 before the start of Day 2 play at Bay 101 – I would have paid 30K less had I picked him up prior to the LAPC – but still, a great price for Volpe.

Why was Volpe’s FPM Market Price still so low days after his huge second place finish at the LAPC?  Because Volpe’s points from LA had yet to hit the GPI system.  Remember, 80% of a players’ FPM Market Price comes from his/her standing on the Global Poker Index.  Player rankings on the GPI are updated each and every Thursday at 5:00AM CET (Central European Time).  So Volpe’s GPI rating was still low at the point of purchase.

I ended up selling Volpe when he didn’t make Day 2 at EPT London for a little over 215,000 – that resulted in a net profit (after the 5% agent fee) of over 114K – PURE PROFIT, baby!  This is something that I wasn’t doing very well at first, knowing when to sell your players.

But, did I make a mistake?  Did I give up on Volpe too quickly?  Well, that question, I cannot answer.  I had dropped Volpe prior to the start of EPT London as I really didn’t think he would be making his way to Europe after two amazing weeks in California.  My mistake!  But, I probably would have sold Volpe anyway following the fact that he was out of the tournament prior to the start of Day 2.  But should I have held onto Volpe in order to reap the benefits of his Bay 101 performance?  I would have certainly added to that huge profit – that’s for sure.  But I would have needed to drop one of my 11 players from my EPT London team – I had such a hard time cutting down from 20 to 11 players, I don’t know if there is any way I could have done so.  Maybe that’s what we should do with our 11th spot (you can add an 11th spot on your FPM team by simply “Liking” Fantasy Poker Manager on Facebook) – to have this as a reserve spot – something to think about for sure.

SPECULATORS BEWARE – THE GIANNETTI FACTOR
Now remember, there is a reason it is called speculation.  There are times when you’re expecting a big score from a player win and it never comes, or at least, it doesn’t come right away.  In February, I was so proud of myself when I picked Matt Giannetti (GPI#208) for my WPT Lucky Hearts FPM team.  I looked like a genius when he collected the big win in Florida on a Monday and was expecting a windfall a few days later when  the GPI rankings were updated … but that didn’t happen.  In this case, the result from earlier in the week was not included in the GPI run for the week, so, I was left with nothing for that week.

Note that there may be different reasons why your players stock doesn’t go up as expected (results not official, results not confirmed on time for the GPI update) so always be careful when playing the speculation game.

SPECULATORS BEWARE – MORE WAYS TO LOSE MONEY
You may also want to be careful as to when you should sell your players.  Remember, since the GPI rating counts for 80% of a players’ value, the fact that someone goes down in the overall GPI 300 or 1000 standings will affect your bottom line.  Case in point my holding onto Alain Roy (GPI#183) for a little too long following his score at WPTN Brussels.  Roy picked up a cash in Belgium so I decided to hold onto him as there were still a few days before the next tournament on FPM.

I knew that there was a chance that the results from WPTN Brussels wouldn’t be available for that week’s GPI run but hey, still didn’t hurt to keep Roy on my roster, right?  Wrong!  Roy’s GPI ranking actually went down that week, falling 23 spots from the previous week’s ranking – the impact?  His FPM Market Price went down and I was forced to sell him at a significant loss.  So, you do have to be careful with holding onto players too long – it’s worth the gamble for sure, but realize that you may set yourself up for failure from time-to-time.

For more on Fantasy Poker Manager Speculation, be sure to read mr4b’s column from February 13th.

Ready to join the fun?  Head on over to Facebook and signup to play the GPI Fantasy Poker Manager – lineups for the EPT London High Roller event lock on Thursday at 6:00pm GMT!

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